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Preserving linear invariants in ensemble filtering methods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Formulating dynamical models for physical phenomena is essential for understanding the interplay between the different mechanisms and predicting the evolution of physical states. However, a dynamical model alone is often insufficient to address these fundamental tasks, as it suffers from model errors and uncertainties. One common remedy is to rely on data assimilation, where the state estimate is updated with observations of the true system. Ensemble filters sequentially assimilate observations by updating a set of samples over time. They operate in two steps: a forecast step that propagates each sample through the dynamical model and an analysis step that updates the samples with incoming observations. For accurate and robust predictions of dynamical systems, discrete solutions must preserve their critical invariants. While modern numerical solvers satisfy these invariants, existing invariant-preserving analysis steps are limited to Gaussian settings and are often not compatible with classical regularization techniques of ensemble filters, e.g., inflation and covariance tapering. The present work focuses on preserving linear invariants, such as mass, stoichiometric balance of chemical species, and electrical charges. Using tools from measure transport theory (Spantini et al., 2022, SIAM Review), we introduce a generic class of nonlinear ensemble filters that automatically preserve desired linear invariants in non-Gaussian filtering problems. By specializing this framework to the Gaussian setting, we recover a constrained formulation of the Kalman filter. Then, we show how to combine existing regularization techniques for the ensemble Kalman filter (Evensen, 1994, J. Geophys. Res.) with the preservation of the linear invariants. Finally, we assess the benefits of preserving linear invariants for the ensemble Kalman filter and nonlinear ensemble filters.


Synthesising a Database of Parameterised Linear and Non-Linear Invariants for Time-Series Constraints

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many constraints restricting the result of some computations over an integer sequence can be compactly represented by register automata. We improve the propagation of the conjunction of such constraints on the same sequence by synthesising a database of linear and non-linear invariants using their register-automaton representation. The obtained invariants are formulae parameterised by a function of the sequence length and proven to be true for any long enough sequence. To assess the quality of such linear invariants, we developed a method to verify whether a generated linear invariant is a facet of the convex hull of the feasible points. This method, as well as the proof of non-linear invariants, are based on the systematic generation of constant-size deterministic finite automata that accept all integer sequences whose result verifies some simple condition. We apply such methodology to a set of 44 time-series constraints and obtain 1400 linear invariants from which 70% are facet defining, and 600 non-linear invariants, which were tested on short-term electricity production problems.